Deterring Aggression: Poland Takes Bold Steps on NATO’s Eastern Border

Poland has been at the vanguard of NATO’s deterrence and defence adaptation ever since Russia’s 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea. In just over a decade, Poland has doubled the size of its military, making its armed forces the largest in Europe today. Motivated by a long history of conflict and occupation by Russia - and by fears that Russia’s current war of aggression could extend beyond Ukraine - Poland’s force modernisation is underpinned by Warsaw’s allocation of almost 5% of GDP to defence spending, the highest proportion in NATO. This includes more than USD50 billion in new weapons purchases, the formation of new divisions and defence units, and the launch of major territorial defence initiatives to secure its borders with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave to the north and Belarus, operating closely with Moscow to the east.

As Lieutenant General Karol Dymanowski, Vice-Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, told the visiting delegation: “Full-scale war is now a reality in Europe, hybrid warfare is a constant, and strategic competition is intensifying – we are not at war, but not at peace either and we need to scale deterrence and defence accordingly.” To get a closer look into Poland’s impressive armed forces modernisation and to see first-hand the evolving security situation along NATO’s Eastern Flank, a delegation from the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security Cooperation (DSCTC) visited Warsaw and Poland’s border region with Belarus from 27-29 October. 

Nicola Carè (Italy), DSCTC Chairperson, led the 15-member delegation and stressed the importance of the visit in remarks at the Polish Parliament. “This committee takes a clear-eyed and current view of the challenges facing Allies along NATO’s Eastern Flank, and few nations have done more to demonstrate what Allied solidarity means in practice. Poland has been among the first to act, the most forward-leaning in its commitment, and the most clear-eyed about the stakes of Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

Adapting to a New Strategic Reality 

During the visit, government officials and military leaders emphasised that Poland’s military expansion is a direct response to a real and growing threat from Russia. The pace of Poland’s defence modernisation has accelerated since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, driven further by an alarming rise in provocations across the Alliance — including sabotage, arson, attempted and successful assassinations, and coordinated disinformation campaigns. From 9-10 September, 19 Russian drones penetrated Polish airspace. Poland and NATO proved to be up to the task as Polish, Dutch, Italian and German assets were coordinated to shoot down the incoming air threats. Fortunately, the drones were either intercepted or crashed into the ground without any loss of life or critical infrastructure. Nevertheless, it was a blatant violation of Allied airspace and the clearest sign to date that Russia is probing NATO Allies for weak spots and testing resolve.

Discussions with senior officials in Warsaw centred on the evolution of the Russian threat and the nature of the Allied response. Lieutenant General Piotr Błazeusz, Strategic Adviser to the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, provided a stark assessment of Russia’s actions, emphasising its persistent testing of NATO’s reactions and resilience through ongoing hybrid operations against the Allies. Błazeusz explained that Russia carefully evaluates every NATO response and adjusts its tactics, techniques, and procedures accordingly. “Russia’s neo imperialist intentions are locked in and Moscow will continue to push, looking for vulnerable seams in the Alliance’s fabric,” he said. 

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski underscored the need for sustained Allied resolve as Russia’s hybrid campaigns persist: “To deal with the Russian threat, Allies need to change Russia’s calculus towards NATO. Implementing the Hague Summit defence spending agreements, backed by focused collective action with strong political signalling, will do just that”, he noted. 

Poland’s Contribution to Europe’s Deterrence and Defence

In response to the escalating threats to Poland, along the Eastern Flank, and broader Euro-Atlantic security, Poland has taken significant steps at home, as well as in coordination with Allies, to send strong deterrence and defence signals. These include the restructuring and expansion of its armed forces to create new powerful modern divisions capable of rapid response, as well as new initiatives to defend against any form of incursion along its borders, such as Eastern Shield, which is a 700 km-long defence project to protect against armed invasion along Poland’s borders with Russia and Belarus. It also includes expanded cooperative security initiatives and outreach, such as hosting the U.S. Army Garrison Poland, and NATO’s Aegis Ashore missile defence system and the NATO enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) multinational battlegroup. 

The 18th Mechanised Division exemplifies the transformation of Poland’s modern armed forces into a rapid-response military structure. Established in 2018 and maintained at a high level of readiness, the division combines advanced Western equipment—including U.S. Abrams tanks, South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks, and K9 Thunder howitzers—with modern command, reconnaissance, and logistics systems. Just before the delegation’s visit to its headquarters, the division took part in Iron Defender-25, Poland’s largest NATO-led exercise of the year. The exercise involved roughly 30,000 troops and more than 600 pieces of heavy equipment in a simulated defence of Polish territory against an incursion through the Suwałki Gap. It also showcased the advanced use of uncrewed systems for battlefield intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and demonstrated all-domain interoperability as forces manoeuvred seamlessly across diverse terrain over hundreds of kilometres.

In Białowieża and the border regions, the delegation observed first-hand the security measures reinforcing the Alliance’s Eastern Flank. The challenges facing Polish forces along its eastern frontiers range from concerns about Belarusian-directed ‘weaponised’ migration to deterring any form of armed incursion into Polish territory. Site visits to Operation Safe Podlasie offered insights into Poland’s Eastern Shield initiative, designed to fortify national borders and enhance the readiness of reserve and territorial defence forces.

Poland’s border wall with Belarus exemplifies the intersection of migration management and hybrid security threats in Europe. In 2024, in response to elevated migration and hybrid threats, Poland launched the military-supported Operation Safe Podlasie, deploying approximately 8,000 troops to assist with border security and maintaining an additional 9,000 in reserve. As briefers told the delegation, the over 180 km fortified barrier, equipped with surveillance technology, was built in response to Belarus deliberately directing migrants toward the borders of the European Union (EU) to exert political pressure on Warsaw and beyond. Beyond its humanitarian implications, this tactic represents a form of hybrid warfare, testing Poland’s border security and the EU’s collective response mechanisms. As briefers told delegates the problem is persistent. Despite the extremely low rates of successful crossings, Belarus assisted over 29,000 migrants in attempts to breach the elaborate barrier system over the last year.

Briefers also reviewed Poland’s Eastern Shield, a major defence infrastructure programme also launched in 2024 to fortify almost 700 km of Poland’s borders with Russia’s Kaliningrad district and Belarus. Eastern Shield, briefers noted, has several key objectives, from impeding potential invading forces’ mobility across the border to including enhancing the Polish armed forces’ ISR capabilities and facilitating Polish and NATO forces’ ability to defend against incursions. The project is expected to be completed by 2028.

Driving Defence Innovation for Enduring Security  

Just outside of Warsaw, the delegation met with representatives from the Military Institute of Armament Technology (MUT) to learn how its advanced labs and facilities are an essential cog enabling the expansion of Poland’s defence industrial base. Touring the Centres for Explosives and Munitions and for Training Systems and Simulators, the delegation learned how the institute can drive down costs associated with new system development and training, and feed in lessons learned from the war in Ukraine to drive new forms of force innovation.  

Overall, Poland’s rapid defence transformation and steadfast commitment to Allied security exemplify the resolve needed to confront an increasingly aggressive Russia. As NATO adapts to a new era of sustained strategic competition, Poland’s experience offers a model for deterrence, resilience, and Allied solidarity across the Euro-Atlantic area.

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly is institutionally separate from NATO but serves as an essential link between NATO and the parliaments of the NATO nations. It provides greater transparency of NATO policies and fosters better understanding of the Alliance’s objectives and missions among legislators and citizens of the Alliance. 

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Photos © the Sejm of the Republic of Poland