AGP Executive Report

Belarus Tech Education & Defense R&D: Lukashenko is pushing the new Academy of Intellectual Technologies as an applied, industry-linked pipeline for engineers and digital specialists, with plans for up to 150 students a year and company assignments from day one; he also floated a “universal” counter-drone weapon concept, asking whether Belarus should focus on drone-killing systems or longer-term materials and rare-earth work. Border Tech & Infrastructure: Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service says the Belarus threat becomes “real” if provocations target the Ukrainian-Belarus border, pointing to engineering obstacles, route destruction, minefields, and expanding video surveillance and fortifications. Military Build-Out Near Ukraine: Belarus is expanding the 37th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade near the border into a larger, more self-sufficient force with a second maneuver battalion plus artillery, air defense, reconnaissance, and support units. Cross-border Tech Sanctions: Ukraine imposed sanctions on Belarusian defense/tech firms including Kidma Tech and TISA/Tissa, targeting optical equipment, missile-related work, cleanroom and lab infrastructure, and related components. Tech Talent & Mobility: Poland opened a special procedure for Belarusians lacking educational documents to apply to universities via SYRENA, with universities able to waive certified-document requirements when documents can’t be obtained for reasons beyond applicants’ control. AI for Batteries: ELECTRA AI’s EVE-Ai Battery Fleet Analytics was selected by TapFin to add battery-level intelligence for lenders, OEMs, and operators in India.

Counter-Drone Push: Lukashenko says Belarus may develop a “universal” anti-drone system, and links it to the new Academy of Intellectual Technologies. New Tech Education: The Academy will admit up to 150 students a year (10–15 per program) across natural sciences, engineering tech, and digital tech (AI and digital finance), with students assigned to companies and graduates tied to at least a five-year contract. Military Expansion: Belarus is expanding the 37th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade near Ukraine with a second maneuver battalion plus artillery, air defense, reconnaissance, and support units. Defense Sanctions: Ukraine sanctions Belarusian defense/tech firms Kidma Tech and TISA (Tissa), targeting missile-related and optical/defense supply roles. AI for Batteries: ELECTRA AI’s battery-intelligence platform is selected by India’s TapFin to add battery health and remaining-useful-life analytics for lenders and OEMs. Rail Modernization: Belarusian Railways plans 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, with upgrades to signaling and communications and growing digital ticket use. Border Tech: Lithuania plans to buy tunnel-detection technology for its border after tests with Polish equipment.

Border Tech & EW: Germany’s Bundeswehr is running electronic warfare monitoring along the Belarusian border in Lithuania, using antenna-equipped vehicles to scan the electromagnetic spectrum and jam communications during key moments. Sanctions & Defence Supply Chains: Ukraine’s NSDC-backed sanctions hit 23 companies and 20 individuals tied to Russia’s defence industry, including Belarus-linked optical and missile-repair firm Kidma Tech and Rostec-linked Morozov Plant. Rail & Digital Transport: Belarusian Railways plans 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, with upgrades to tracks, signaling, centralized traffic control, and communications; nearly 45% of tickets are already bought via digital services. Storm Response: Lukashenka received a report on severe weather in Hrodna, Brest and Minsk regions, including crop damage, flooded streets, and rapid power restoration—while officials admitted shortcomings in storm-front assessment and called for tighter cooperation with Belhydromet and the National Academy of Sciences. Cross-Border Tensions: Belarus says Latvia’s suspension of the Pāternieki border crossing is politically motivated and threatens “asymmetrical” retaliation. Defence Innovation in the Baltics: Baltic startups are pushing drone guidance and other counter-hybrid tech to help NATO’s eastern flank cope with GPS jamming and attacks. Infrastructure Security: Lithuania plans to buy tunnel-detection technology for its Belarus border after tests (with Polish equipment) reportedly found an underground passage.

Belarus–Latvia Border Tensions: Belarus’ foreign ministry says Latvia’s sudden suspension of the Pāternieki crossing is “politically motivated,” dismissing a “technical failure” claim and warning of asymmetrical retaliation tied to upcoming elections. Rail Tech & Transport: Belarusian Railways plans to buy 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, with upgrades to tracks, signaling, centralized traffic control, and communications using new data transmission tech; about 45% of passengers already use digital ticket services. Storm Response & Infrastructure Resilience: Emergency Situations Minister Vadzim Sinyauski briefed Lukashenka on July/August storm damage in Hrodna, Brest and Minsk, including crop losses, roof damage, fallen trees, and power outages restored to nearly all affected communities within 12 hours—while admitting shortcomings in storm-front assessment and calling for tighter work with Belhydromet and the National Academy of Sciences. Defense Tech on the Frontier: Lithuania says it will acquire tunnel-detection technology after tests (borrowed from Poland) found an unfinished underground passage near the border; officials report more than a dozen suspected tunneling attempts recently. Baltic Startup Deterrence: A report highlights Baltic founders building drone guidance and other defense-related tech to counter GPS jamming and hybrid threats linked to Russia and Belarus. Space/Comms Angle: A separate piece revisits Belarus’ long-running communications satellite role, alleging it supports Russian missile strike timing and targeting via China’s satellite network.

Belarus–Russia tech & security links: A report says Belarus’ only communications satellite, built by China and operated from Minsk, is tied to Russian missile-strike timing and targeting, with Ukrainian intelligence pointing to its role inside Beijing’s fast-growing space network. Transport modernization: Belarusian Railways plans to buy 30 new passenger carriages and 100 freight wagons in 2026, with the first 15 passenger units for the Minsk–Moscow route due by Sept. 1, alongside upgrades to signaling and communications and a growing share of digital ticketing. Border tech arms race: Lithuania will acquire tunnel-detection equipment after tests (supplied via Poland) spotted underground digging attempts near the Belarus border, with authorities saying more than a dozen attempts were identified recently. Media & data governance pressure: Lithuania is reviewing a Belarus-linked businessman’s residency after an OCCRP/Buro investigation alleged apps marketed as Lithuanian send user data to servers in Belarus and Russia. AI alliance politics: A new China-led World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO) is framed as a counter to the U.S.-backed Pax Silica Alliance, highlighting how AI and semiconductors are becoming geopolitical blocs. 5G expansion: MTS Belarus expands 5G roaming to 36 countries.

Border Tech & Security: Lithuania says it will buy Polish-made equipment that detects ground vibrations from digging, after trials helped uncover an unfinished tunnel near the Belarus border; authorities report more than a dozen suspected tunnel attempts, with completed ones eliminated. Baltic Defense Startups: A report highlights how Baltic founders are building drone guidance and other defense tech to counter hybrid threats from Russia and Belarus, aiming to strengthen deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank. Cyber & Data Risks: Lithuania is reviewing a Belarusian businessman’s residency after an investigation alleged Belarus-linked mobile apps may transmit user data to Belarus/Russia servers, prompting reassessment by security agencies. Belarus Tech Ecosystem (Telecom): MTS Belarus expands 5G roaming to 36 countries, signaling continued regional connectivity upgrades. Software Supply-Chain Threats: Google and Mandiant warn of rising attacks targeting open source repositories and developer tools, including campaigns that steal credentials and pivot into broader environments. Defense Cooperation: Pakistan and Belarus agree to deepen defense ties, including joint training, exercises, technological collaboration, and defense industrial partnership.

Baltic Defense Tech Push: A Lithuanian drone-precision startup, Pdkinematics, is building guidance systems designed to work even when GPS is jammed—part of a wider Baltic effort to harden defenses against hybrid threats from Russia and Belarus. Lithuanian Sanctions on Belarus-Linked Tech & Data: Lithuania is reviewing a Belarusian businessman’s residency after an OCCRP/Buro investigation alleged several popular mobile apps were developed/maintained in Belarus and sent user data to Belarus/Russia, prompting a security-status reassessment by the State Security Department. Cyber Supply Chain Security: Google Threat Intelligence Group and Mandiant warn that open-source software supply chain attacks are rising, with campaigns targeting repositories, dependencies, and developer tools (including worm-like spread across ecosystems). Belarus-Linked Telecom/5G Expansion: MTS Belarus expands 5G roaming to 36 countries, signaling continued regional connectivity growth. Security Cooperation (Defense Tech Angle): Pakistan and Belarus agreed to deepen defense collaboration, including joint training, exercises, technological cooperation, and defense-industrial partnerships. Regional Tech-Policy Pressure: Lithuania proposes barring pro-Kremlin Russian/Belarusian figures from public roles in education, science, culture, sport, and entertainment, plus limits on property near strategic sites. Platform Safety & Enforcement: Australia filed legal action against Telegram over alleged failure to remove extremist content, testing the country’s platform responsibility law.

Lithuania Tightens Sanctions on Belarus/Russia Ties: Lithuania proposes new restrictions on Russian and Belarusian nationals who back the Moscow/Minsk regimes, including bans on public work in education, science, culture, sport and entertainment, plus limits on property purchases near military and security sites—framed as a move to block “soft power” propaganda. Lithuania Reviews Belarusian App Developer Residency: Lithuania is rechecking the legal status of Belarus-linked businessman Andrei Shimanovich after an OCCRP/Buro investigation alleged mobile apps marketed as Lithuanian were developed/maintained in Belarus and sometimes sent user data to Belarus/Russia, prompting a security-agency reassessment. Wildberries Security and Losses: Wildberries CEO Tatiana Kim says drone attacks on its logistics have caused billions in losses across multiple countries and that the firm is continuously upgrading warehouse defenses and fire safety, including new fire brigades and equipment. Fertilizer Supply Shock Reminder: Commentary highlights how Strait of Hormuz disruptions can hit fertilizer flows—after earlier shocks including sanctions affecting Belarus potassium—raising food-price risk. Belarus–Pakistan Defense Tech Cooperation: Pakistan and Belarus reaffirm plans for deeper defense collaboration, including joint training, exercises, technological cooperation and defense-industrial partnerships. Open-Source Supply Chain Attacks: Google/Mandiant warn of rising software supply chain compromises targeting open source repositories, with campaigns using developer tooling and credential-stealing payloads.

Belarus-linked apps under scrutiny: Mysterium VPN Research Team says EU-listed eSIM Plus and Nicegram share a Belarus-linked codebase and are signed with “Mobyrix, Minsk,” while eSIM Plus routes data and calls via Russian services—raising fresh questions about how “Lithuanian” products are actually controlled. Youth leadership rotation: Marharyta Vorykhava is stepping down as the United Transitional Cabinet’s youth policy representative, saying she will focus on building the organizational and technological foundations Belarusian democratic forces will need under pressure. Banking update: National Bank chairman Raman Halouchanka says Belarus’ banking system is mobilised and exceeding H1 targets, including growth in loans for Belarus-made goods and a rise in longer-term household deposits. Defense ties in the spotlight: Belarus and Pakistan reaffirmed plans to deepen cooperation, including joint training, exercises, technological collaboration, and defense industrial partnership, with Belarusian delegations meeting Pakistan’s air and naval leadership. Cyber supply-chain warning: Google Threat Intelligence Group and Mandiant report a surge in open-source software supply chain attacks, including campaigns targeting developer tools and repositories. Media regulation watch: Moldova’s new mass media law is set for parliamentary vote in a second reading, with implications for how journalism operates amid AI and algorithm-driven information flows.

Belarus-linked app scrutiny: A Mysterium VPN Research Team report says eSIM Plus and Nicegram share a Belarus-signed codebase and route calls/data via Russian services, raising new questions about how “Lithuanian” apps are built and who controls them. Youth movement tech foundations: Marharyta Vorykhava is stepping down as UTC youth policy representative, saying she will focus on building “organizational and technological foundations” for Belarusian democratic forces under pressure. Defense ties with tech angle: Belarus and Pakistan agreed to deepen cooperation via joint training, exercises, technological collaboration, and defense-industrial partnerships after high-level air force talks in Islamabad. Cyber supply-chain risk: Google Threat Intelligence and Mandiant warn of a surge in open-source software supply chain attacks, including campaigns targeting developer tools and repositories. Media regulation watch: Moldova’s new mass media law is set for a second reading, with debates about how journalism will be regulated amid AI and algorithm-driven “cognitive wars.” Telegram legal pressure: Australia’s eSafety watchdog filed legal action against Telegram over alleged failure to remove extremist content, testing the country’s platform responsibility rules.

Open-Source Security: Google and Mandiant warn that software supply-chain attacks are increasingly targeting open source repositories and developer tools, with campaigns using worms and repeated compromises across package ecosystems. Telegram Under Pressure: Australia’s eSafety watchdog filed legal action against Telegram over alleged failure to remove extremist and terror content, setting up a major test of platform responsibility. Belarus Tech Footprint: A report says eSIM Plus and Nicegram share a Belarus-linked codebase; eSIM Plus routes calls/data via Russian services, raising questions about how “local” apps are built and operated. Belarus–Pakistan Defense Tech: Belarus and Pakistan agreed to deepen defense cooperation, including joint training, military exercises, technological collaboration, and defense industrial partnerships. Belarus Economy Targets: Belarus set 2027 goals including ≤6% inflation, 2.9% export growth, and GDP around 360B BYN, while pushing investment and household income growth. Digital/Finance Ops: MTS Belarus expands 5G roaming to 36 countries, while the National Bank says the banking system is mobilized and exceeding key targets. Cyber/Border Reality: Estonia detained migrants linked to Belarus border crossings, framing it as a hybrid operation; meanwhile, Telegram phishing campaigns targeted exiled Belarusian activists.

Belarus–Pakistan Defence Tech & Industry Links: A Belarusian military delegation led by Major General Muraveiko Pavel Nikolayevich met Pakistan’s Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu in Islamabad, with both sides pushing deeper cooperation via joint training, exercises, “technological collaboration,” and defence-industrial partnerships. Belarusian Digital Governance: The Belarus Council of Ministers approved a unified registry of “numerical regulatory indicators” across government legal acts, to be run by the National Center for Legislation and Legal Information and published on the National Legal Internet Portal from Aug 1. Belarus-Linked Messaging Apps Scrutinized: Mysterium VPN Research says EU-store apps eSIM Plus and Nicegram share a Belarus-linked codebase and route through Russian services (including Yandex AppMetrica and Voximplant), raising new questions about how Belarus-origin software is repackaged for EU users. Belarus Banking Momentum: National Bank chairman Raman Halouchanka says the banking system is mobilized and exceeding H1 targets, including growth in loans for Belarus-made goods and a rise in longer-term household deposits. Agriculture & “Technological Discipline”: Lukashenka set a 12 million tonnes harvest target and again blamed weak “technological discipline” for uneven execution.

Belarus Tech & Governance: The Council of Ministers approved a unified registry of “numerical regulatory indicators” across Belarusian legal acts, to be run by the National Center for Legislation and Legal Information and published on the National Legal Internet Portal from Aug 1. Belarus Telecom: MTS Belarus expanded 5G roaming to 46 mobile operators across 36 countries, with service now available in 18 EU/EEA states plus additional regions. Digital Security (Belarus-linked): RESIDENT.NGO reports a personalized Telegram phishing campaign hitting Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan, using fake login pages that request authentication codes; one Belarusian activist targeted from Lithuania is named in coverage. Regional Tech & Innovation: The CIS Permanent Representatives met in Minsk to prepare October summits in Turkmenistan, including plans tied to digital transformation and regional cooperation. Tech Policy Context: EU sanctions coverage this week highlights tighter pressure on Russia-linked crypto infrastructure, including stablecoin networks and exchanges.

AI Governance & Diplomacy: China-backed countries including Belarus helped launch the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) in Shanghai, aiming to set AI governance and capacity-building rules without Western participation. Mobile Connectivity: MTS Belarus expanded 5G roaming to 36 countries via 46 operator networks, with service now available across parts of the EU/EEA and beyond. Crypto Sanctions: The EU added new targets tied to the A7A5 ruble-backed stablecoin network and the HTX exchange, tightening pressure on Russia-linked crypto infrastructure. Belarus Tech & Security Links: A Reuters report says Ukraine’s prosecutor may face a request to open criminal proceedings against Lukashenko over alleged war-crimes and “state terror” allegations tied to Russia’s invasion. Regional Digital Transformation: A new report argues Western Balkan digital transformation needs tech-driven ecosystems, private-sector involvement, and EU-aligned collaboration. 5G/Standards Angle: The WAICO move is framed as part of a broader pattern of non-Western countries building their own tech standards and governance structures.

5G Expansion: MTS Belarus says it has broadened 5G roaming to 46 operators across 36 countries, with service now live in 18 EU/EEA states and more destinations planned. AI Governance: A new World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) was launched in Shanghai by 29 countries, including Belarus, aiming to set AI governance and capacity-building rules—while Western democracies largely stayed out. Cybersecurity & Sanctions: The US OFAC sanctioned a Belarus-linked alleged “cryptor” service provider tied to ransomware infrastructure, underscoring Belarus’s role in cybercrime supply chains. Digital Safety: Resident NGO reports a Telegram phishing campaign targeting an exiled Belarusian activist and users in Belarus, Russia, and Kazakhstan, using personalized links to steal Telegram login codes. Belarus Tech Policy: Belarus introduced new gambling rules banning citizens from sending money to overseas online casinos and tightening identity checks for operators. Cross-border Tech/Infrastructure: Latvia is extending border fortification works on a 42 km stretch, with swampy sections requiring special engineering and some handovers pushed to 2027. Legal/Travel Tech: Montenegro aligned its visa regime with the EU, adding Belarus to visa-required countries from Nov 1, 2026, with applications routed via VFS centers.

Belarus telecom: MTS Belarus expanded its 5G roaming to 36 countries (46 operator networks), with service now available across 18 EU/EEA states and more destinations planned. CIS coordination in Minsk: CIS Permanent Representatives met in Minsk to prepare October summits in Turkmenistan, including agendas for foreign ministers and heads of state, with a focus on digital transformation and regional cooperation. Belarusian legal status abroad: Tsikhanouskaya’s Office responded to growing “legalization” problems for Belarusians in Poland and Ukraine, where protection refusals and residence-permit renewals without passports are becoming a bottleneck. Cybercrime pressure: OFAC sanctions Belarus-linked cybercrime enablers tied to ransomware infrastructure, signaling continued pressure on VPN/“cryptor” services. AI governance signal: A new World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) was launched in Shanghai by 29 countries including Belarus, positioning itself as a Global South platform for AI governance and capacity building. Belarus gambling rules: New Belarus regulations ban citizens from transferring money to overseas-based online casinos and tighten identity checks for operators. Regional security tech context: Latvia is extending border infrastructure work on a 42 km stretch with difficult swampy terrain, with some segments due only in 2027.